Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals Matchup Preview - August 15th, 2022

2 years ago

Editor

Right-hander Marcus Stroman is expected to start today for Chicago, while right-hander Josiah Gray gets the nod at home for Washington. Stroman enters this contest with a 4.20 ERA, backed up by a 3.97 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Gray, meanwhile, has a 5.60 FIP underlying his 4.81 ERA. The last time Marcus Stroman was on the bump, the Cubs lost 5-6 versus the Nationals. He left allowing 4 earned runs and recording 6 strikeouts with 2 walks. Gray's last start was against the Cubs, when the Nationals lost 2-4. Over 6.1 innings pitched, he allowed 2 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 0 walks.

Chicago Cubs Insights

Given that groundball pitchers perform best against groundball hitters, Marcus Stroman (50.7% GB% according to THE BAT projections) is well-situated in this game with 2 GB hitters in the opposition's projected offense.
Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.
Nick Madrigal has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

Washington Nationals Insights

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Josiah Gray has used his off-speed and breaking balls 9.7% more often this year (57.6%) than he did last season (47.9%).
Cesar Hernandez's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.5-mph EV last year has lowered to 83.9-mph.
The Washington Nationals projected lineup projects as the 5th-worst of all teams on the slate.

Betting Trends

The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 55 of their last 97 games (+12.90 Units / 12% ROI)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 46 games (+9.45 Units / 18% ROI)
Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.85 Units / 43% ROI)