Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals Matchup Preview - August 4th, 2022


Today's contest between the Cardinals and the Cubs pits THE BAT's 226th ranked SP (Sean Newcomb) against the 101st ranked SP (Jose Quintana). Quintana is a four-seam guy (35.8%) who brings a curveball as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Newcomb deserves something like a 6.12 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 11.57. On that front, Quintana's ERA sits at 3.50 and his FIP at 3.23.

Chicago Cubs Insights

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Sean Newcomb today.

  • Frank Schwindel's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 87.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 83.3-mph in the last 14 days.

  • Projected catcher Willson Contreras profiles as a weak pitch framer, according to THE BAT projection system.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

  • Jose Quintana's 2069 rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 5th percentile among starters.

  • THE BAT X projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

  • The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in MLB, per THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 55 of their last 102 games (+9.05 Units / 8% ROI)

  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 39% ROI)

  • Marcus Stroman has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 81% ROI)