Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022

The Red Sox are scheduled to start Brayan Bello (2-6, 4.75 ERA) against Yankees starting pitcher Nestor Cortes (10-4, 2.67 ERA) on Sunday. Brayan Bello recorded the win in his last outing, as the Red Sox beat the Reds 5-3. He pitched 5 innings allowing 1 earned run with 8 hits. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 2 walks. The last time Nestor Cortes took the mound, the Yankees defeated the Pirates 9-8. He finished with 5 IP, 4 K, 2 BB, while allowing 1 earned run on 5 hits. Today, Bello projects for 5.01 innings pitched with 2.3 ER, 4.9 hits, 4.6 strikeouts, and 1.8 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Cortes's average outcome to be 5.88 IP, 2.2 ER, 4.7 H, 6.6 strikeouts, and 1.5 walks.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello's 95.6 mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 94th percentile among SPs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.1% FB% per The Sharp Model projections) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

• The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Anthony Rizzo has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• The 19.2% Barrel% of the New York Yankees makes them the #2 group of hitters in the league since the start of last season by this stat.

Betting Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.20 Units / 42% ROI)

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 39 away games (+6.55 Units / 15% ROI)

• Matt Carpenter has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 63% ROI)