Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates Matchup Preview - August 17th, 2022

Editor

The Red Sox are scheduled to start Rich Hill (4-5, 4.75 ERA) against Pirates starting pitcher Roansy Contreras (3-2, 3.78 ERA) on Wednesday. In Rich Hill's last outing, the Red Sox lost 7-9 against the Braves. He pitched 4 innings allowing 4 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 0 strikeouts with 1 walk. The last time Roansy Contreras took the mound, he recorded a win as the Pirates defeated the Reds 4-2. He finished with 6 IP, 7 K, 1 BB, while allowing 1 earned run on 4 hits. Today, Hill projects for 5.09 innings pitched with 2.3 ER, 5.0 hits, 4.5 strikeouts, and 1.4 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, THE BAT projects Contreras's average outcome to be 5.35 IP, 2.5 ER, 5.2 H, 4.4 strikeouts, and 1.6 walks.

Boston Red Sox Insights

  • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Rich Hill has used his secondary offerings 12.3% more often this season (62.7%) than he did last season (50.4%).

  • Kike Hernandez has been unlucky this year, putting up a .264 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .048 deviation.

  • Jarren Duran has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will be challenged by the league's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

  • Roansy Contreras's 95.4 mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 93rd percentile among SPs.

  • Tucupita Marcano has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates (24.9 K%, via THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-most strikeout-heavy lineup today.

Betting Trends

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 36% ROI)

  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 42 away games (+6.00 Units / 13% ROI)

  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.30 Units / 29% ROI)