Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Matchup Preview - September 29th, 2022

Today's contest between the Red Sox and the Orioles pits The Sharp Model's 139th ranked SP (Mike Baumann) against the 49th ranked SP (Nathan Eovaldi). Eovaldi is a four-seam guy (37.9%) who brings a changeup as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Baumann deserves something like a 4.00 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 4.32. On that front, Eovaldi's ERA sits at 4.15 and his FIP at 4.50.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Mike Baumann wasn't on in his last GS and notched 2 strikeouts.

• The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Stowers can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Rougned Odor has a high pull rate on his flyballs (38% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• The Sharp Model X expects Nathan Eovaldi to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 72 pitches.

• J.D. Martinez has been unlucky with his home runs this year; his 13.60 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 23.90 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

• The Boston Red Sox projected lineup profiles as the 4th-best of the day.

Betting Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 53 games (+4.35 Units / 7% ROI)

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.15 Units / 31% ROI)

• Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+6.55 Units / 28% ROI)