Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Matchup Preview - September 28th, 2022

Wednesday evening the Atlanta Braves battle against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. The Braves offense will be led by Austin Riley, who ranks as the #9th-best hitter in baseball according to The Sharp Model X. Given Austin Riley's profile and today's matchup specifics, The Sharp Model X expects him to average a .352 wOBA, .242 AVG, and .27 HRs. On the other side, Luke Voit (The Sharp Model X's #120th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Nationals lineup. He projects for a .328 wOBA, .226 AVG, and .22 HRs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Jake Odorizzi has relied on his cut-fastball 12.5% more often this year (20.7%) than he did last season (8.2%).

• The Washington Nationals don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Eddie Rosario is guaranteed to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the whole game.

• Projected catcher Travis d'Arnaud profiles as a good pitch framer, via The Sharp Model projection system.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Josiah Gray’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2357 rpm) has been considerably better than than his seasonal rate (2213 rpm).

• Extreme groundball batters like Luis Garcia usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jake Odorizzi.

• The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the majors, per The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 55 games (+2.75 Units / 4% ROI)

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

• Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+9.55 Units / 19% ROI)