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Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Matchup Preview - September 26th, 2022

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Bryce Elder (160th ranked SP via THE BAT) is projected to take the mound for Braves as they battle the Nationals and Cory Abbott (300th ranked SP) at Nationals Park. The quick scouting report on Elder: his main fastball is a sinker, which he uses 37.5% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a slider (29.2%). Meanwhile, Abbott primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (47.9%) and his most-used secondary offering is his slider (25.1%). The Sharp Model X projects Elder for 2.4 earned runs and 4.6 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Abbott is forecasted for 3.2 earned runs and 4.3 strikeouts.

Atlanta Braves Insights

  • Given that groundball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage against groundball hitters, Bryce Elder (49.2% GB% according to The Sharp Model projections) is well-situated in this game with 2 GB hitters in the opposition's projected batting order.

  • Michael Harris II is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Washington (#1-best on the slate today).

  • Projected catcher Travis d'Arnaud projects as a good pitch framer, per The Sharp Model projection system.

Washington Nationals Insights

  • Cory Abbott has been lucky with his ERA this year; his 4.85 figure is quite a bit lower than his 6.17 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

  • Luis Garcia has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.

  • The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the worst in MLB, per THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+8.65 Units / 30% ROI)

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 146 games (+19.52 Units / 11% ROI)

  • Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.75 Units / 36% ROI)

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