Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022

Right-hander Charlie Morton is expected to start today for Atlanta, while right-hander Kyle Gibson gets the nod at home for Philadelphia. Morton enters this contest with a 4.09 ERA, backed up by a 4.04 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Gibson, meanwhile, has a 4.23 FIP underlying his 4.71 ERA. The last time Charlie Morton was on the bump, he recorded the win as the Braves defeated the Nationals 3-2. He left allowing 1 earned run and recording 9 strikeouts with 3 walks. Gibson's last start was against the Blue Jays, when he recorded the loss as the Phillies were defeated 11-18. Over 5 innings pitched, he allowed 7 earned runs with 12 hits. He also recorded 3 strikeouts with 1 walk.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate today.

• Ronald Acuna Jr. has been unlucky with his home runs this year; his 15.80 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit lower than his 27.20 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

• The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in MLB, via THE BAT.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Kyle Gibson projects to record 17 outs today, according to The Sharp Model X.

• Bryson Stott has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+7.40 Units / 21% ROI)

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 31 games (+4.50 Units / 12% ROI)

• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 40 of his last 68 games (+12.05 Units / 16% ROI)