Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps Aug 25, 2023

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST; no movement is expected afterward. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your picks if both the model and Sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight. I will also share my thoughts on the games.

RECAP of yesterday's games: The smart money was very quiet yesterday therefore we skipped this article. Today it's just as quiet however I do agree with the smart money so might as well jump into it.

As the sun sets over Detroit tonight, the baseball world will be treated to a clash between the Houston Astros and the Detroit Tigers. While many betting markets have already adjusted the game's total to 9, there's still an opportunity to seize the over at 8.5. At first glance, my model aligns with this number, suggesting no apparent value. However, a deeper dive into the dynamics of this matchup paints a compelling picture for an offensive showdown.

The Detroit Tigers, brimming with youthful exuberance, have been a revelation in recent weeks. Their roster, filled with emerging talents, has been a thorn in the side of many established teams. Their recent performances have not only been a testament to their potential but also a sign of the exciting future that awaits them.

On the other side, the Houston Astros, are embroiled in a fierce battle for the AL West title. With the Mariners breathing down their necks and the Rangers leading the pack, every game is crucial for the Astros.

However, the money line for this game presents a conundrum. The odds heavily favor the Astros, as expected. But there's a catch. The pricing seems to be a nod to Framber Valdez's past glories rather than his current form. Valdez, once the linchpin of the Astros' rotation, has been going through a rough patch, conceding 6 runs in three of his last five outings. While a return to form is always on the cards for a player of his caliber, the odds seem to be prematurely celebrating a resurgence.

The Tigers, meanwhile, will be rallying behind Matt Manning. Despite stringing together a few commendable performances recently, relying on him to stifle the Astros' solid lineup is a gamble. The Astros, with their backs against the wall in the pennant race, will be raring to go.

Another factor that tilts the scales in favor of a high-scoring game is the vulnerability of the Detroit bullpen. Even if the Tigers manage to get ahead with Valdez's recent struggles, holding onto that lead will be a challenge given their bullpen's inconsistencies.

For those leaning towards the under in the upcoming game featuring Valdez and the Tigers, there's a compelling narrative that might just validate that inclination.

Framber Valdez, the ace up Houston's sleeve, isn't a stranger to the Detroit lineup. Cast your mind back to April, and you'll recall a masterclass from Valdez against these very Tigers. Over a span of seven innings, he showcased his prowess, allowing a mere eight hits and two earned runs. His control was impeccable, conceding just one walk while striking out nine.

Now, let's pivot our attention to the Tigers' offense, or rather, the lack thereof. The numbers paint a grim picture. The Tigers find themselves languishing in the bottom 10 across a slew of offensive metrics, be it runs, hits, home runs, RBIs, or even the more nuanced stats like batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS. It's not just a phase or a rough patch; it's been the story of their season.

Given this backdrop, one can't help but feel that the Tigers are poised for another challenging outing against Valdez. Their past encounter is a testament to the uphill battle they face. Valdez, with his recent track record against them and their ongoing offensive struggles, seems primed to keep the Tigers' bats quiet.

In conclusion, while the pitchers might be the focal point leading up to the game, it's the batters who are poised to steal the show tonight. The stage is set for an offensive masterclass IMO, and for those looking to place a wager, the over seems to be the way to go.

Recap: Houston over 8.5

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